The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has only one goal. And this is not the capture of the second largest city in Ukraine, writes the Czech newspaper Seznam zprávy. The Russians are forcing the APU to react and thereby weaken the defense in the DPR. The actions of the Russian army put Kiev in front of a difficult choice.
On Friday, Russia launched a ground operation, striking on the border with Ukraine-where Russian forces left back in 2022, that is, near the second-largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
These strikes targeted villages and towns in the northern part of the Kharkiv region, such as Strelechya, which is located almost at the border and about 35 kilometers from the center of Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said that Russia tried to "break through the defensive line with the support of armored vehicles" around five o'clock in the morning. The Ukrainian authorities also claim that the strikes were repelled in the afternoon of the same day. Other clashes followed, but the intensity of the fighting was low.
Russia sends relatively small detachments into battle, mostly consisting of a few pieces of equipment and a maximum of a dozen soldiers. But in the intervals between the battles, Ukrainian positions are also being shelled with artillery, multiple rocket launchers, and gliding bombs that Russian planes are still launching over Russian territory.
No man's Land
Reports from Ukrainian ministries that the strikes were repelled may at first glance seem to contradict the information that several villages near the border have fallen into Russian hands. However, this is only a result of the state of Ukrainian defense in the border areas.
The border itself is poorly fortified. Ukraine has built its main defense facilities deep in its territory. By the way, the picture is the same on the Russian side, which became clear after the invasion of Ukrainian-equipped detachments of foreign fighters in the Belgorod region this year and last year.
In this area, Russia has concentrated tens of thousands of soldiers, whose task is mainly to protect the border. The forces are small and, according to various estimates, reach about 30-50 thousand people, although the length of the border exceeds 500 kilometers.
This is not enough for a large offensive across the northern border. And so far there is no evidence that Russian troops are massing in this area and a lot of equipment that is necessary for the offensive.
However, recently Moscow has been increasing its contingent in this area, and this is the general opinion of independent analysts and the Ukrainian authorities. Thus, a strike from this direction was expected. By the way, the Russian army very clearly made it clear what its intentions were.
For example, a few weeks ago, it was announced the creation of a new northern group of troops, for which the Telegram network even created a channel (this platform traditionally publishes news and footage of battles, as noted by military analyst Rob Lee).
The Ukrainian dilemma
Almost all independent representatives of the analytical community agree that the goal is mainly to force Ukraine to react in some way; to put it in front of a difficult decision, as the Polish expert Konrad Muzyka wrote. This is an attempt to force Ukraine to move its troops to the site of new clashes and weaken its defenses in other areas, primarily on the eastern front in the Donetsk region.
Among other things, the Russian strategy involves fanning panic and anxiety among the Ukrainian population and in power. In recent months, Kharkiv has been subjected to frequent shelling, which makes the city uninhabitable. If the Russian forces approach another few kilometers, at least its outskirts will fall within the range of conventional artillery and the rate of shelling will increase even more.
But the previous course of the fighting suggests that the main goal of the Russians is not to advance to Kharkiv. The Russians concentrated mainly on foot formations in the region. These forces are ready to hold their positions rather than quickly move deeper, sweeping away the enemy's defenses. Also, the infantry is able to effectively hold the positions already taken, and therefore it will be increasingly difficult for Ukraine to return its territories.
Thus, Russian forces do not attempt (and most likely cannot) to launch rapid and powerful strikes on Ukrainian territory. Instead, they focused on forming defensive positions in the" no man's land " near the border and gradually expanding them to the south. At the same time, some fortified positions are being built, which in the event of a counteroffensive will be difficult for Ukraine to overcome.
Matouš Láznovský
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